It’s the World Series odds everybody wanted to bet on, as the New York Yankees face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1981.
A star-studded series, featuring Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Gerrit Cole, and more, gets underway Friday night — and we’ve got our best MLB picks from the Covers’ staff.
Read on to see our World Series predictions and best bets for a matchup between baseball’s two most iconic franchises.
World Series prediction
Andrew Caley, Senior Betting Analyst: Both of these lineups are stacked… but which team is better set up to limit the damage? To me, it’s the New York Yankees. They have the best starter in the series in Gerrit Cole, who is supported by solid secondary options in Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt. Then there is the bullpen, led by Luke Weaver, a multi-inning savant who has pitched more than two of the three Los Angeles Dodgers starters. And speaking of the Dodgers rotation… all three potential guys have an ERA of 5.11 or higher, meaning Dave Roberts will have to patch together innings from a solid but overworked bullpen. Good pitching beats good hitting.
Josh Inglis, Betting Analyst: It sounds aggressive, but Cole is set up to pitch in Games 1 and 5. The Yankees could also win Game 2 (Rodon vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and one of Game 3 (Walker Buehler/TBD vs. Schmidt) or Game 4 (bullpen vs. Luis Gil). Their rotation is a massive edge with five games over six days. If that LAD bullpen gets worked early, it could be a disaster for the favorites.
Neil Parker, Betting Analyst: New York has had the superior starting pitching this postseason: The Dodgers sport a 5.17 xFIP across 40 innings from their starters during the playoffs, while the Yankees have a 4.26 mark, and I also think it speaks volumes that Los Angeles will likely have to rely on an opener and bullpen game at some point during the series. Plus Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is nursing an ankle injury that caused him to miss time during the NLCS — he posted an 18th-ranked 137 wRC+ and rock-solid 4.0 WAR during the regular season…. that production is difficult to replicate when playing at less than 100%.
Jason Wilson, Publishing Editor: The Dodgers and Yankees are fairly even on offense with Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani offsetting Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but Freddie Freeman’s ankle is worrisome. Moreover, Los Angeles’ pitching staff is a shambles: Jack Flaherty is a Jekyll-and-Hyde pitcher, Yamamoto missed half the season with injury, and the Dodgers otherwise relied on bullpen games to win key clashes in both the NLDS and NLCS. If they deploy a reliever-heavy attack in any game against New York, that’s a loss. The lack of depth (thanks to injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Ohtani as a pitching option) will catch up to them.
Chris Vasile, Publishing Editor: Sometimes things are just meant to be and this year’s World Series has every chance to go the distance. Both sides can trot out elite-caliber pitchers and elite hitters at the plate, so where exactly is the edge? Is it home field? Don’t think so. Is it managing the game? Both are pretty suspect. Where I believe the difference lies is in the Dodgers’ depth — they can attack you from any spot in the batting order and the Yankees won’t be able to match the production.
Jared Hochman, Content Manager: The Dodgers are going to try to outslug the Yankees, but with Judge, Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton — plus a hot Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe — New York has the bats to keep up. That means this series will come down to the pitching, where L.A. has a slight bullpen edge, but New York has a bigger advantage with the starters. Both teams will put up runs, but the longer this series goes, the more the Yankees will see the Dodgers relievers… and that will be the edge in them breaking through to take their first title since 2009.
World Series MVP
Caley: There are more stars in this Fall Classic than maybe ever — but stars don’t seem to win the World Series MVP as much as you would expect. That has me locked in on Gleyber Torres at 40/1. The Gleyber experience has been a wild one for Yankees fans but it looks like they’re getting the best version of him this postseason. He sets the table for the Bronx Bombers out of the leadoff spot and is hitting .297 with a .832 OPS over nine postseason games. People also forget he’s still got some pop in his bat; give me Gleyber to score a bunch of runs, drive in a few more, and snag the MVP from the big boppers.
Inglis: Gerrit Cole could have a shot to win the series in Game 5 but he also could pitch a third time — in Game 7 out of the pen on short rest. Silencing the Dodgers bats over 20ish innings would look really good to voters.
Parker: I’m bullish about Juan Soto having a monster World Series because he’ll have the platoon advantage in nearly every plate appearance. The Dodgers rotation is full of right-handed arms and, as it stands, Anthony Banda is the only lefty in the bullpen with the potential of southpaw Alex Vesia returning from a rib injury. Soto posted an elite .424 wOBA and .285 ISO against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and he sports a ridiculous 70.4% hard-hit rate overall during the playoffs.
Wilson: Torres was a phenomenal table-setter for the Yankees in the ALCS, batting .364 while scoring five runs as New York’s leadoff man. In fact, he’s been on fire since the Yankees permanently slotted him at the top spot of the lineup, slashing .313/.386/.454 with 31 runs scored and a 142 wRC+ in 184 plate appearances across 39 games to finish the regular season. The impending free agent would do well to capitalize on L.A.’s decimated pitching staff to earn a major contract in the offseason, and 40/1 is incredible value relative to his peers.
Vasile: Since I like the Dodgers, the safe bet would be to take Ohtani +200 and call it a day. He’s got a great shot of winning the award but the price on Teoscar Hernandez at +2800 is too good to pass up. Hernandez has been good this postseason, contributing two big home runs to the cause, and he’s got two hitter-friendly parks to take aim at and will have plenty of opportunity to drive in runs with Ohtani and Betts in front of him.
Hochman: Only two relievers have won World Series MVP since 1975: John Wetteland (’96) and Mariano Rivera (’99) — both closers for championship-winning Yankee teams. We have no shortage of otherworldly hitters, but it’s going to come down to the bullpens — and Luke Weaver is the most important reliever in this matchup. With a 1.50 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 12 innings since September 1, he will be put into the highest-leverage spots in this series, with Aaron Boone not afraid to send him out for multi-inning saves. If he pitches 4-5 dominant innings, logs 2-3 saves, and wins multiple battles against Ohtani and Betts… I’ll take a flier at 200/1.
Best bet
Caley: I am seeing this bet as low as +550 at some sportsbooks, so we are already getting some good market value with arguably the hottest hitter heading into the World Series. No player in this series has more postseason hits than Tommy Edman’s 15 and he enters the Fall Classic with a .314 batting average and at least one knock in six straight games. I also like that he’s a switch hitter and should be comfortable at the plate in most matchups. He’s been a pain for everyone to get out, so while he looks like a bit of rest spot in a monstrous Dodgers lineup, underestimating him has burned opponents.
Inglis: If I’m taking some action against the Yanks, it’s a shortstop who was hitting cleanup in the NLCS. Edman won the NLCS MVP after knocking in 11 runs and I always value the guys knocking in runs more than the guys scoring the runs. This is a tough price to ignore.
Parker: Sticking with Soto, he’s posted a .333 batting average in the playoffs after hitting .288 during the regular season, which includes a .293 average against righties. Again, with the Dodgers sending righty after righty to the hill, Soto will have the handedness edge in nearly every plate appearance and batting in the two-hole could give him an extra plate appearance or two on the majority of hitters throughout the series. There’s also a gap in the available numbers, with DraftKings pricing Soto to record the most hits in the series at just +600, so in comparison, the +1000 BetMGM odds present a positive expected value of 57%.
Wilson: If we assume this series goes six games, then Cole, Rodon, Flaherty, and Yamamoto will all get two starts. Carlos Rodon is an excellent value play on this market as both Cole and Flaherty are sitting shorter than +300. As Game 1 starters, that makes sense, but let’s not forget that Flaherty is coming off a start where he (and the entire Dodgers pitching staff) failed to register a single K. Cole’s strikeout numbers are down this postseason and Yamamoto isn’t fully stretched out. That leaves Rodon, who posted a 37.3% K rate in three starts against the Guardians and Royals — teams that don’t strike out often. The biggest danger to this wager is if the series ends in a sweep or five games, but that’s also why we’re getting a solid number for our return.
Vasile: Everyone always gets mad when the two best teams don’t meet in the World Series. Well, it’s happening and it’s going to make some great entertainment. This series has seven games written all over it and the ratings will be off the charts.
Hochman: The Dodgers have extremely questionable starting pitching, the Yankees bullpen gets very thin after the top three arms, and both teams have powerhouse offenses. I expect this series to go the distance, and 52 total runs equals just under 7.5 runs per game. The total for Game 1 — with both teams’ best starters — is 8.5, so if books think the best arms will get us about eight runs… what will happen when we get into a bullpen game or two? I expect fireworks in this series and a total that approaches the 60s.
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