From talking heads with national audiences, to our own friends and family, weâre collectively discussing Bidenâs age-related cognitive decline. Weâre also debating Bidenâs fitness not only for the presidency, but for even the demands of a presidential campaign.
For months, undecided voters — as well as plenty of Democrats and other progressives — have told pollsters that Bidenâs age is a problem. Thus, this concern is not new and did not result from his poor debate performance in June. However, Bidenâs debate performance certainly affirmed these concerns of many Americans. It has also made it harder for unwavering Biden supporters to convince everyone else that there is ânothing to see here.â
The polls indicate that swing voters are needed to win the election, and they will not be supporting Biden in enough numbers for him to win. In other words, if Biden remains the Democratic nominee, Donald Trump is highly likely to win and return to the presidency. Democrats must now ask themselves, what is the goal of the 2024 presidential election? Is the goal to support Biden as the Democratic nominee at any cost? Or is the goal to beat Donald Trump — to actually win?
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Iâve been struck by the unwillingness of some Democrats to accept swing voters and âmeet them where theyâre at.â These Democrats keep insisting that swing votersâ choice boils down to a bad man (Donald Trump) and an old-but-good man (Joe Biden), and the choice is obvious. That is tragically off-base. First, swing voters can choose to stay home on Election Day, and many of them will if theyâre not moved by any particular candidate. For many swing voters who will vote, the bad man versus old-but-good man framing falls flat. Many are not convinced or certain about whether, and to what extent, Trump is actually âbad.â For some Democrats, this perspective is unimaginable. But this refusal to accept and address the real perspectives of swing voters, if left unchecked, will lose Democrats the election.
Unwavering Biden supporters remind me of pro-life advocatesâ failure to meet those who have unplanned pregnancies where theyâre at. Pro-life advocates relentlessly insist that adoption is some universal alternative to abortion. This is simply not the case for those with unplanned pregnancies.
In the March-April 2017 issue of Womenâs Health Issues, a team of University of California, San Francisco researchers led by Dr. Gretchen Sisson published analyses of interviews with women with unintended pregnancies. When considering an abortion in response to these pregnancies, these women did not consider adoption as an alternative. Women first decided whether to carry the pregnancy without regard to adoption, even though they were aware that adoption exists and is available. It was only after keeping the pregnancy, or being denied access to an abortion, that some women eventually considered adoption — and only a small minority, at that. Adoption is simply not something that diverts pregnancies away from abortion.
Wishful thinking on the part of pro-life advocates will not change the decision process of real-life people with unplanned pregnancies. Adoption is an alternative to abortion in the minds of pro-life advocates, not on the ground in real peopleâs lives. And wishful thinking on the part of unwavering Biden supporters will not change the decision process of swing voters.
If pro-life advocates want to reduce abortions, they will listen to those facing unplanned pregnancies. Adoption is not an abortion-reducing strategy, but policies supporting comprehensive sex education, contraception and the economic well-being of families are abortion-reducing strategies.
Swing voters chose Biden in 2020, but things have changed. A Democratic Party that prioritizes winning will nimbly pivot and select a different nominee at the Democratic National Convention in August. Sticking with Biden is not a winning strategy, but listening to swing voters is.
Ellie Shockley is a political psychologist, social scientist and education researcher. This column represents her personal views and not the views of any organization. She completed a doctorate at the University of Chicago and a postdoctorate at Nebraska. She lives in Mandan. Find her past columns at EllieShockley.com.
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