Just as Bill Snyder and Chris Klieman are about more than football, I’ve always yearned to be about more than football picks. But I’m still groping for what that “more” could be. I’m supposed to drink even more wine?
What makes this seductive is that since picking blindly wins you 50%, you’d think that even minimal analysis could win you 60%. Yet a season of hitting 55% is considered quite successful even for professionals. Again, if you care about the money, you’ll have to work at this, and what fun is that?
Yes, it’s better than 99% of jobs, most of which the late David Graeber described with cruel honesty in his best-selling 2018 book “Bull**** Jobs.” But I stress again that my tri-W ideal, wealth without work, can’t be realized through sports gambling. In none of my commencement speeches have I ever urged young people to do it. “Don’t just do something,” I always thunder; “Inherit something! Otherwise the flower of your youth could wither in the dungeons of employment!” (I must turn that theme into a motivational video.)
Most sports gamblers are just fans who gamble to add a bit of spice to their fandom. Following the KISS principle (“Keep it simple, stupid”), in these columns I’m limiting myself to picking on Wednesday nights the point-spread winners of all Big 12 games that have spreads. But in this era, the variety of bets you can make is endless, and if your chief motive is making money you can’t limit yourself.
So start by being clear on how much you value money, fandom, time and energy. Example: my sense has long been that the strongest picks are to be found in minor conferences, for the oddsmakers know less about them, but who wants to endure the tedium of researching them?
Sportsbooks, if operating conventionally, try to lure equal money on both sides, which ensures they make money because of the “juice” or “vigorish” bettors pay when they lose. The default juice used to be 10 percent — risk $110 to win $100 — but in the contemporary era the juice, like point spreads, can vary among sportsbooks and change through the week. That’s why serious gamblers have accounts at several books so they can shop around for the best lines and juice. Fortunes can be won or lost by half a point.
Last week I went 8-8 and 10-11 on the all-important star basis, winning six of 11 one-stars and only two of five two-stars. A drunk chimp can do that. Start with the loathsome Horned Frogs of TCU, whom I two-starred as 10-point faves at Stanford. (The line fell 2-2.5 points by kickoff.) A dominant 457-281 yardage edge wasn’t enough for the Frogs to cover, as they won 34-27. Love ya Frogs. Hope you had to use your seat cushions as flotation devices.
Then, our lovely Cats, another of my two-star losses. Favored by 36 on Wednesday, they won by only 35 despite a dominant 449-134 yardage edge. Their two turnovers broke my back (and moved me to groan “Darn it” under my breath).
Nothing drives gamblers into paroxysms of rage more than for teams they bet on to win without covering. “Misery loves company,” and in their rage losing gamblers want those teams to suffer too by losing those cursed games. And it’s even more nuts-making if, like the Cats and Frogs, they barely fail to cover. Yes, my two-star on KU did cover by only half a point, but let’s credit that pick to my genius.
Now here comes more nagging from wifey-poo. I should “quit squandering money and get a real job.” Please. She knows my bad back forced me to quit my repo job at Rent A Mattress. She knows I could never make more than chicken feed at TaskRabbit.
She should leave me to my picks and stick to her tree surgery. Thankfully, long ago I discovered a way to cope with her and calm down after gambling losses: drinking (always responsibly, of course).
Sage’s Big 12 Selections
Picks are listed first and rated one to five stars: the more stars, the stronger the pick. Minus sign: favored by; plus sign: underdog by. Lines are from the Wednesday-night “Scores and Matchups” page of Covers.com. Record for season: 8-8, 10-11 on star basis. Times Central.
* Friday, 6 p.m. BYU +11.5 at SMU
** Saturday, 11 a.m. Kansas St –9.5 at Tulane
* Saturday, 11 a.m. Pittsburgh +2 at Cincinnati
* Saturday, 11 a.m. Oklahoma St –7.5 hosts Arkansas
* Saturday, 2:30 p.m. Utah –14.5 hosts Baylor
* Saturday, 2:30 p.m. Iowa St +2.5 at Iowa
* Saturday, 5:30 p.m. UCF –22 hosts Sam Houston
** Saturday, 6 p.m. Kansas –5.5 at Illinois
** Saturday, 6:30 p.m. Nebraska –7 hosts Colorado
* Saturday, 6:45 p.m. Oklahoma –28.5 hosts Houston
** Saturday, 9 p.m. Northern Arizona +44.5 at Arizona
* Saturday, 9 p.m. Washington St –2 hosts Texas Tech
* Saturday, 9:30 p.m. Arizona St. –6.5 hosts Mississippi St
S. Bradley Miller of Manhattan is the Fabulous Sage. You can reach him at thefabsage@aol.com.
