As Social Security marks its 89th anniversary, the program faces unprecedented challenges that have thrust it into the center of the upcoming presidential election. With mounting sustainability issues and a widening generational divide, candidates are grappling with how to preserve and potentially reform this cornerstone of American social policy.
The Social Security Board of Trustees’ latest report paints a sobering picture: the program’s combined trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2035. At that point, it would only be able to pay about 83% of scheduled benefits, a prospect that has alarmed beneficiaries and future recipients alike.
This looming shortfall has catalyzed a range of reform proposals from presidential candidates. In the last year, candidates have put forward a range of proposals to address Social Security’s financial challenges. These ideas generally fall into two broad categories: increasing revenue through higher taxes or reducing costs by cutting benefits. However, these potential solutions face significant public resistance. According to an April 2023 poll by The Associated Press, 79% of Americans oppose cutting Social Security benefits. The same poll found that 75% of respondents were against raising the program’s eligibility age from 67 to 70.
Vice President Kamala Harris has committed to protecting and strengthening Social Security, supporting measures like expanding the payroll tax to include higher incomes to ensure the program’s solvency. As a senator, she co-sponsored the Social Security Expansion Act, which proposed increasing benefits for some recipients and adjusting how cost-of-living increases are calculated. Former president Donald Trump has vowed to protect Social Security without cutting benefits or raising the retirement age, though he hasn’t provided a detailed plan to ensure the program’s long-term stability. He has suggested funding Social Security by tapping into oil and gas revenues and reducing waste, fraud, and spending on other programs, but these measures may not fully address the program’s financial challenges.
According to Pew Research, nearly 80% of Americans, including 77% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats, believe that Social Security benefits should remain untouched and not be reduced in any way. These divergent approaches reflect a broader generational divide in attitudes toward Social Security. Millennials, Gen Zers, and Gen Xers are more likely than boomers to believe that Social Security should be reformed, with 76% of millennials, 56% of Gen Zers, and 69% of Gen Xers supporting reform, compared to 50% of boomers, according to a December poll on behalf of Newsweek. Additionally, 52% of millennials think the system isn’t receiving enough tax payments to cover retiree benefits, a view less commonly held by other generations.
“I’ve been working nonstop since I turned 18yrs old. I’m a millennial, and for years we’ve been hearing jokes about not having SS when we turn 65+. That sh*t is NOT funny. ‘ha ha, you’ve been paying into a system you’ll never benefit from.’ Ha ha my ass. That’s some bullsh*t,” said Ashley Stevens on X in 2020.
This sentiment is particularly resonant among senior citizens, many of whom are grappling with the erosion of their Social Security benefits’ purchasing power. According to a recent analysis by The Senior Citizens League, Social Security benefits have lost 20% of their buying power since 2010. For those who retired that year, this translates into a need for an additional $370 per month, or $4,440 annually, just to maintain the same standard of living they had upon retirement.
“I’m down to eating ramen for lunch, which I never ate in my life until recently,” said Janet Albrecht, an Indiana, Penn., resident to CNN today. Albrecht relies primarily on $1,163 in monthly Social Security payments. “If it’s not marked down, I just don’t eat it. I haven’t eaten beef since I don’t know when. I can’t afford it.”
The debate over Social Security’s future is particularly charged for marginalized communities, who often rely more heavily on the program. For many Black, Hispanic, and Native American seniors, Social Security represents a critical lifeline.
The pandemic has disproportionately impacted older Black and Latino workers, who have experienced higher unemployment rates than their white counterparts. With mounting evidence that millions of these workers may be forced into early retirement, they face significant challenges, including reduced Social Security benefits, diminished savings, and costly disruptions in employer-provided healthcare—burdens that will weigh especially heavily on nonwhite workers.
Melvin Page’s retirement took an unexpected turn when, three years in, he suffered a brain aneurysm that left him with overwhelming medical debt and led to more than a year of homelessness in Denver. At 73, Page, who is Black, worked part-time as a lot attendant at Denver International Airport, but his income wasn’t enough to cover basic needs, forcing him to rely heavily on Social Security. “I’m still willing to work and take full responsibility for my future,” Page said to Colorado Public Radio in 2022, “but I can’t help wondering if I’ll be able to afford any more help than what I receive now.”
The racial wealth gap in America means that communities of color often have less retirement savings and are more dependent on Social Security. Kilolo Kijakazi, a fellow at the Urban Institute who has written extensively on income, wealth and race told The New York Times: “We have a history of discrimination in hiring, pay, promotions and benefits. Discrimination in hiring also contributes to occupational segregation,” she said.
LGBTQ+ seniors face unique challenges as well. Despite recent legal victories, many have faced lifelong discrimination that has impacted their earnings and ability to save for retirement. “The realities of older LGBTQ adults are often invisible, but our research shows they are clearly worried about aging with dignity, especially when it comes to finances, discrimination and family and social support,” said Cassandra Cantave, AARP Senior Research Advisor. According to a 2022 AARP study LGBTQ adults expressed significant concerns about their financial security as they approach retirement, with 85% of respondents worried about having sufficient income or savings. The highest levels of concern were reported among those aged 45 to 54, as well as Black, transgender, and nonbinary participants.
In swing states like Arizona, Social Security has emerged as a pivotal issue in the 2024 election cycle. Despite major shifts in the political landscape, including President Biden’s withdrawal and an assassination attempt on former President Trump, the program remains a top concern for voters.
A recent Arizona AARP poll revealed that 78% of voters over 50 consider candidates’ positions on Social Security when deciding their vote, with 86% of this demographic “extremely motivated” to participate in the election. Political commentator Paul Cummings argues, “These numbers should serve as a signal to any candidate trying to win in Arizona this election year – pledging to protect Social Security and Medicare is a winning strategy.”
As the election approaches, Social Security reform continues to be a significant issue in the campaign with potential implications for the financial well-being of millions of Americans. The answer may well help determine the outcome of the election and shape the social safety net for generations to come.
