Week 18 is the worst betting week on the NFL calendar. A 16-game slate offers mostly empty calories in meaningless games with teams whose postseason fates are sealed. Only five matchups this weekend involve teams battling for division titles or playoff spots in general. A handful of others will determine postseason seeding. The others? They’ll be a showcase for backups hoping to play their way off a future UFL roster.
Some teams will be fully in the tank in an effort to preserve their draft status. Others will do their damnedest to make things difficult for a rival. The problem with Week 18 is we’re not entirely sure which camp these teams with minimal stakes will fall into until the games start. How many starters will make a token appearance, lock in some specific contract bonuses and cede time to practice squad staples? We don’t know, but we’re still assuming they can beat the Jets or Raiders.
That’s where our resident NFL betting/fantasy expert and Rhode Island Scumbag Mike Boyajian and I have landed with the book closing on the 2025 regular season. The holiday took us off the books last Sunday, potentially cooling off a hot streak and Week 16’s 7-1 record. We aim to reclaim that glory. Our bets are below, with all Scumbag analysis in blockquotes.
Well, here we are. Week 18. An absolute minefield of choices awaits us. Which coaches are trying to save their jobs? What teams are sitting their starters, looking forward to the playoffs? Which teams are using the week as a “get right” game before the playoffs start? These scenarios already add to the typical slate of injuries, weather, and travel concerns we usually look at every week. These games are always an adventure to try and figure out. Let’s give it a shot.
After a stinker in week 16, Joe Burrow and the Bengals could have closed up shop and packed it in with their playoff dream long gone. Instead, they went out and smacked the Cardinals around to the tune of a 37-14 blowout. They close out the year against the offensively inept Cleveland Browns, who get to finish out the string sans Quinshon Judkins, and possibly Harold Fannin Jr.
Yes, they upset the Steelers last week (gross look, Steelers), but Joe Burrow has a little bit more life left in his arm than Aaron Rodgers does, as well as a much more capable allotment of skill players. This one could get ugly if the Bengals offense decides to run it up.
Scumbag Lock of the Week II: Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at New England Patriots (one unit)
I had the Patriots covering last week against the Jets (which they easily did), but this week’s spread screams fade. The Patriots need to win the game to clinch the second seed in the AFC (and possibly the top seed and the bye, but the chances of the Broncos losing to the Justin Herbert-less Chargers seems highly unlikely), but they don’t need to cover to do so.
New England narrowly escaped Miami with a win in their last matchup. With the surprisingly serviceable Quinn Ewers drawing another start for the Fins, the Dolphins could look spry once again. If the Patriots are up by a couple scores, don’t be surprised if we see a repeat of last week with the second and third stringers finishing up this one. This could easily lead to a Dolphins cover to go along with a Patriots win.
Scumbag Lock of the Week III: Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs. Detroit Lions (one unit)
The Bears are playing for playoff seeding, while the Lions are playing for…well, nothing. The Lions were outplayed by a dominant Brian Flores-led Minnesota defense last week, and now face a formidable Chicago unit. Chicago’s offense looked great in their shootout loss to the 49ers on Sunday night, and it looks like Luther Burden III is trending toward playing. I think Chicago just has too much for the injury depleted Lions.
The Rams need a bounce back win after the disaster of a game against the Falcons (who are seemingly unbeatable once they are eliminated from playoff contention every year), and here come the hapless Cardinals. Arizona got bullied last week against the Bengals and now has to head to LA to face what should be a very motivated Rams team that needs to get themselves right before the playoffs .
You know what? I think I feel confident enough to throw down two units here, so let’s make that adjustment. If the Rams put up a stinker, shame on me, but I can’t see them continuing to spiral at this point. So final verdict…TWO units on the Rams to cover.
- Last week: 4-0, +4 units
- Season to date: 38-28 (.576), +9.4 units
My non-Scumbag bets: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 over the Las Vegas Raiders (two units), Los Angeles Rams -7 over the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons -3 over the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills -7 over the New York Jets (one unit each)
That Bears line is tempting, but I fully expect Dan Campbell to have his guys playing like absolute lunatics against a team he beat by 31 earlier this year (Chicago is much better than it was in Week 2, but the Lions can’t go out like this… right?). That’s enough to scare me away. I also had the Bengals for a minute, but Joe Burrow is only 4-5 in his career against Cleveland and was decidedly muted when those teams met in Week 1. So, in interest in not chasing the same games too much this week, that was also scrapped.
Instead, let me bet on, woof, Chris Oladokun because we all saw that Giants-Raiders game last week, right? The one where Las Vegas showed us what it truly means to tank? Fernando Mendoza’s gonna look good in silver, and Pete Carroll’s not gonna screw that one up. The man is 74 years old, he needs a franchise quarterback immediately. And because Yaj is throwing out two-unit bets and I’ve gotta catch up to him, let’s double our typical wager.
The Falcons are 12-4 since 2018 after being eliminated from the playoffs. Tyler Shough won’t have Chris Olave to work his late-game magic and Kirk Cousins knows he’s auditioning for a role elsewhere in 2025 — trading him would save Atlanta $32.5 million in salary cap space.
Like Yaj, I agree LA needs a get-right game. That’s the perfect time to face the Cardinals, who’ve lost by at least 20 points in three of their last four weeks and haven’t won a game since November 3.
I know the Bills are resting most of their starters. I don’t care. A Mitch Trubisky offense should be able to beat this Jets team by double digits.
- Last week: 3-1, +2 units
- Season to date: 34-29-1 (.540), +8.6 units
